The attention of the world’s major powers is concentrated on the war in Ukraine. But there may be another international crisis on the way. North Korea looks weakened due to the virus, but their anti-covid approach may be a part of a bigger strategy. The Omicron control activities could be a disguise for military activities. For example, troops deployment, field hospital preparation, and police forces activation. Meanwhile, in South Korea, the government is under serious pressure because of both internal and external reasons. The United States is partly engaged in the war in Ukraine. They wouldn’t be able to quickly respond to massive and sudden military action in the Asian Pacific region. Certainly, Korea doesn’t have massive diasporas on the European continent. The crisis on the Korean peninsula is more possible than ever. The Ukrainian war leads to the conflict in Korea. There are two possible scenarios.

Scenario A. Nuclear testing

Possibility: highly likely.

Since the beginning of 2022, North Korea has already launched 23 missiles. That includes the one with a strange “double-arc” flight pattern. North Korean strategic goal is to develop an effective modern ICBM with a flight range of up to 15000 kilometers. Missiles like that could attack the objects on American territory. In the current step, North Korea needs to complete a round of nuclear weapons testing. They would choose underground testing. The last underground testing happened in 2017. They might also try long-distance nuclear testing in the Pacific Ocean.

That will destabilize the region, but there will be no direct reaction to it. Western countries would express concerns but still keep their eyes on Ukraine. The UN Security Council would be inactive. The conflict in Ukraine makes the UN Security Council paralyzed.

However, the war in Ukraine might escalate further, for example, Polish military forces would directly intervene in the war. Or the US would share with Ukraine their heavy artillery that could attack far objects in Russian territory. The situation in Eastern Europe will become more unstable. So, the Ukrainian war leads to the conflict in Korea. In this case, North Korea could choose a more risky approach, that would trigger Scenario B.

Scenario B. Military conflict

Possibility: less than likely.

The situation in the Korean peninsula is very different from the Ukrainian one. For North Korea, the full-scale invasion would be devastating. Unlike Ukraine, South Korea has the United States as its ally. However, the United States may not have enough allocated resources to quickly react to the North Korean offense. The United States and Russia are out of the game. It means that China becomes the biggest regional player. While China does not need the actual big war near its borders. But China wants the changes in the regional status quo.

In the case of a military conflict, China would try to act both as a mediator and a peacekeeper. China heavily invests in its military forces. But its army lacks actual military experience. The only way for Chinese troops to get military experience is through peacekeeping operations. The military conflict in Korea could also help them establish the first military base in Asian Pacific outside their borders. China could also use the North Korean offense as leverage in strategic talks with the United States. That includes matters such as the problem of Taiwan, trade restrictions, etc.